Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers gear up for the second game of their series on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Orioles, with an 86-68 record, are enjoying a strong season and are in the thick of the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Tigers, at 80-74, are having an above-average season and are still in the mix for a potential Wild Card spot.

In the first game of the series, Baltimore's offense, ranked 6th in MLB, showcased their power, a key strength as they lead the league in home runs. The Orioles' lineup, powered by hitters like Colton Cowser, who has been on fire with a .350 batting average and two home runs over the last week, will look to continue their dominance at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

On the mound for Baltimore is left-hander Cade Povich. Despite his struggles this season—boasting a 5.74 ERA and a 2-9 record—Povich's xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. He'll face a Tigers offense that ranks 24th in both overall performance and team batting average, making this a potentially favorable matchup for Povich to find some success.

Reese Olson, the Tigers' right-hander, takes the mound with a solid 3.50 ERA, showcasing his effectiveness this season. Known for his high groundball rate, Olson could neutralize Baltimore's home run prowess. However, his projections indicate he may not pitch deep into the game, which could test Detroit's bullpen, ranked 10th in MLB.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Baltimore is favored with a 56% chance of victory. The Orioles' potent offense, combined with Povich's potential for a bounce-back performance, positions them well against the Tigers. With both teams eyeing postseason possibilities, this matchup carries significant weight as the regular season winds down.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has used his change-up 6.7% more often this season (21.9%) than he did last year (15.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Parker Meadows's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87-mph seasonal average has decreased to 80.8-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Detroit Tigers have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Over his last 3 games started, Cade Povich has experienced a notable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2314 rpm over the entire season to 2262 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

As it relates to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has had some very good luck this year. His 32.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Baltimore Orioles hitters collectively rank near the top of Major League Baseball this year (3rd-) in regard to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+15.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 32 away games (+17.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 21 games at home (+13.50 Units / 64% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.31 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.78

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.