Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves Pick For 6/18/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves, currently holding a solid 39-31 record, are set to host the Detroit Tigers, who are struggling at 34-38, in an interleague matchup on June 18, 2024, at Truist Park. This game marks the second in the series between the two teams. Yesterday, the Braves took the first game, adding to their favorable momentum this season. The Braves are in a good position, while the Tigers are having a below-average season.

The Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Despite his 0-2 record and a concerning 6.32 ERA, Schwellenbach's 4.47 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might see better results moving forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Schwellenbach to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.3 walks, while striking out 4.7 batters. These projections indicate a below-average performance, but Schwellenbach has the potential to outperform these numbers.

On the other side, the Tigers will start Casey Mize, who has a 1-4 record with a 4.43 ERA over 13 starts. Mize is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.4 walks, with 4.4 strikeouts. Mize's tendency to throw strikes could play into the Braves' hands, given that Atlanta ranks 5th in MLB for least walks taken, making them less likely to chase pitches out of the zone.

Offensively, the Braves are ranked 13th in MLB in team batting average and home runs, while their stolen bases rank is a lowly 28th. Matt Olson has been the standout hitter for Atlanta over the past week, boasting a .423 batting average and a 1.290 OPS with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs in his last 7 games. The Tigers' offense ranks 24th overall, with Riley Greene being a bright spot recently, hitting .345 with a 1.130 OPS, 3 home runs, and 12 RBIs in his last 7 games.

The Braves' bullpen, ranked 7th, is another advantage over the Tigers' average 15th-ranked bullpen. With Atlanta favored at -165 and an implied win probability of 60%, the Braves have a strong outlook. The Tigers, with a +145 moneyline and a 40% implied win probability, face an uphill battle. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expected high-scoring affair. Given the Braves' stronger overall profile and home-field advantage, they are well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 5.95 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.09 — a 1.14 K/9 gap.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Grading out in the 95th percentile, Riley Greene has hit 47.1% of his balls in the air since the start of last season with a velocity of at least 100 mph.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Ranking 7th-highest in the league since the start of last season, Detroit Tigers bats as a unit have notched a 13.5° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Over his last 3 starts, Spencer Schwellenbach has put up a colossal ERA of 6.32.

• A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive skill to be a .341, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .081 disparity between that figure and his actual .422 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 41 games (+13.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.34 vs Atlanta Braves 5.01

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