Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 21, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling through disappointing seasons. The Nationals sit at 56-70, while the Rockies are even worse off at 47-79. With both squads well out of contention, the stakes are low, but the matchup still promises intrigue, especially given that it’s the second game of their series.

In their previous game, the Nationals lost to the Rockies, and both teams are looking to gain some momentum. The Nationals will rely on left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker, who has been average with a 4.44 ERA this season. Despite being ranked as the 188th best starting pitcher in MLB, Parker has shown flashes of effectiveness, projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.1 innings today.

On the other side, Tanner Gordon will take the mound for the Rockies. Gordon has had a rough go of it, recording an ERA of 7.00 and a 0-4 record in just six starts this year. Although he has an xFIP of 4.20, suggesting some bad luck, his low strikeout rate (19.0 K%) might play into the Nationals’ favor, as they rank 6th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 22nd in MLB, while the Rockies sit at 16th. However, the Nationals have been buoyed by Keibert Ruiz, who has been their best hitter over the last week. Ruiz has recorded 5 hits, 4 RBIs, and 3 home runs in this span, contributing to a 1.056 OPS.

With the Nationals favored at -160 and an implied team total of 4.70 runs, this matchup highlights the potential for a turnaround as they look to even the series against their struggling opponents.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

In his previous outing, Tanner Gordon didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 0 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .321 rate is a good deal higher than his .276 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Mitchell Parker will average a total of 5.8 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Juan Yepez is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 42% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.92 vs Washington Nationals 4.19

Get daily MLB picks here.