Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Odds & Picks – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Nationals sit at 56-69, while the Rockies trail with a record of 46-79. The magnitude of this matchup may not be playoff-driven, but both teams are looking to build momentum after recent victories; the Nationals defeated the Phillies 6-4, and the Rockies edged out the Padres 3-2.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start DJ Herz, who has had an average season with a 2-5 record and a 4.25 ERA. Despite his less-than-stellar win-loss record, Herz has shown potential, with a 3.74 xFIP suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky. His high strikeout rate of 28.3% could be advantageous against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts. Herz's last appearance on August 14 was solid, as he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 5.

In contrast, the Rockies will counter with Austin Gomber, who has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a 4.82 ERA. Gomber’s low strikeout rate of 16.9% could be a concern against the Nationals, who have been less prone to strikeouts this year. Gomber also pitched well in his last start, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Nationals are favored with a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, reflecting confidence in their offense. Although the Rockies have a slightly better overall ranking in terms of offense, the projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with the Rockies expected to score just 3.59 runs on average. With both teams looking to capitalize on recent successes, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber projects for 17.3 outs in today's outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jordan Beck's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.4-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Colorado Rockies have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against DJ Herz in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.324) implies that Alex Call has been very fortunate this year with his .425 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.84 vs Washington Nationals 4.05

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.