Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 6/17/2025

The Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies on June 17, 2025, in a matchup between two struggling teams. Currently, the Nationals sit with a record of 30-42, while the Rockies are even worse at 15-57. Both teams are far from playoff contention, and the Nationals just lost to the Rockies in a previous game, adding to their frustrations this season.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Mike Soroka, who has been somewhat of a bright spot for Washington despite his 3-4 record and 5.14 ERA. Soroka's 3.75 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky this year, suggesting he could perform better moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.2 batters. However, he also faces challenges, as he allows a high average of 4.6 hits and 1.6 walks.

Conversely, the Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound. His 1-10 record and a dismal 7.23 ERA place him among the worst pitchers in MLB this season. Although Senzatela's projections indicate he might pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, he struggles with strikeouts, averaging just 3.0 per game against a Nationals lineup that has been relatively patient at the plate.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 21st in MLB, while the Rockies are 28th, making it a battle of underperforming bats. With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs and the Nationals favored at -195, the projections suggest a favorable outcome for Washington. Given their offensive edge and Soroka's potential to outperform expectations, the Nationals may find a way to capitalize on this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Antonio Senzatela has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme flyball hitters like Mickey Moniak tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mike Soroka.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka's 93.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.6-mph rise from last year's 92-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Positioned lowest in the game this year, Washington Nationals batters jointly have put up a 8° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.69 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.03, Washington Nationals 4.6

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals

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