Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Pick – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park in the third game of their series. Both teams have been struggling this season, with the Nationals holding a record of 30-43 and the Rockies at a dismal 16-57. In their previous matchup, the Rockies managed a victory, but both teams are looking to improve their fortunes.

The Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher who has had a tough year with a 4-7 record and an ERA of 4.96. While Parker ranks as the 203rd best starting pitcher in MLB, he faces a Rockies lineup that has the most strikeouts in the league, which may play to his advantage. His low strikeout rate of 15.6% could be mitigated by the Rockies' impatience at the plate, as they rank 4th in least walks drawn.

On the other hand, German Marquez is expected to take the mound for the Rockies. Marquez has also struggled, with a record of 2-8 and a troubling 6.62 ERA. Although his xFIP of 4.70 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, he will need to improve his performance against a Nationals offense that, while ranking 22nd in MLB, has been more effective recently.

The projections favor the Nationals, giving them a high implied team total of 5.03 runs for this game. With the Rockies’ offense ranking 28th in the league, their projected total of 3.97 runs reflects their ongoing struggles. As both teams vie for a much-needed win, expect a competitive matchup that could provide insight into their prospects moving forward.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Given that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball bats, German Marquez and his 44.5% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this matchup going up against 5 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Orlando Arcia's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.1-mph average last year has lowered to 85.3-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Colorado's 89-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #24 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mitchell Parker has gone to his secondary offerings 6.7% less often this season (44.7%) than he did last year (51.4%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as German Marquez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.69 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+11.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• German Marquez has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.45 Units / 68% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.39, Washington Nationals 4.59

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.