Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Pick – 6/16/2025

The Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies on June 16, 2025, at Nationals Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 30-41 and the Rockies even worse at 14-57. The Nationals have shown some offensive spark, ranking 21st in MLB, but their performance has been inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Rockies' offense ranks 28th overall, with a dismal 29th in team batting average.

In this game, the Nationals bats will go up against Rockies' starter Carson Palmquist, who has struggled mightily this season with a 7.77 ERA and an 0-4 record. Although projections suggest he may improve slightly, he still faces a tough matchup against a Nationals lineup that, despite its flaws, can capitalize on his control issues.

Jake Irvin is projected to start for Washington, bringing a 5-3 record and a 4.21 ERA to the mound. While his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season, he faces a Rockies offense that leads MLB in strikeouts, which could play to his advantage. Irvin's ability to limit walks and his projection of 6.0 innings pitched will be vital as he looks to help the Nationals secure a much-needed victory.

With the Nationals favored at -200 on the moneyline, they have a high implied team total of 5.22 runs for this matchup. Given the struggles of both teams, this game presents a critical opportunity for the Nationals to gain traction in a disappointing season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin projects for 18.2 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Carson Palmquist.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-weakest of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.12, Washington Nationals 4.4

• Date: June 16, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Palmquist - Rockies
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

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