Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 4/14/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 100, Blue Jays -1.5 -120
• Money Line: Rockies 215, Blue Jays -250
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 31%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 69%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 36.23%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 63.77%

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 14, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Rogers Centre. This interleague matchup features the Blue Jays as the home team and the Rockies as the away team.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios, who has been a solid performer this season. Berrios has started three games, boasting a perfect 2-0 record with an impressive 1.45 ERA. However, his 3.37 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future outings.

Opposing Berrios on the mound will be left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Freeland has had a rough start to the season, with an 0-2 record and an astronomical 16.03 ERA. However, his 6.36 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve moving forward.

In terms of offense, the Blue Jays rank 19th in MLB, while the Rockies come in at 7th. The Blue Jays have excelled in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league, but their home run and stolen base numbers are average. On the other hand, the Rockies have displayed power at the plate, ranking 18th in batting average and 24th in home runs, but they are last in stolen bases.

Taking into account all these factors, the Blue Jays enter the game as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -245, implying a 68% chance of victory. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +205 and a 32% chance of winning.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects both teams to score below average runs in this game. However, it's important to note that projections are just estimates and the game could unfold differently.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Toronto Blue Jays have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Daulton Varsho is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Rockies vs Blue Jays Prediction: Rockies 4.02 - Blue Jays 5.14

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