Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Colorado Rockies at Globe Life Field in an Interleague matchup. The Rangers are currently hovering around .500 with a record of 21-21, while the Rockies are struggling immensely at 7-34, firmly positioned at the bottom of the standings. This game marks the second in the series between these two teams, with the Rangers looking to capitalize on their home advantage against a Rockies squad that has been notably underwhelming.

In their last game, the Rangers managed to secure a win, while the Rockies' troubles continued as they have struggled to find consistent performance on both sides of the ball. Jack Leiter is projected to take the mound for Texas. Despite being ranked the 235th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he is showing signs of potential improvement, with a 4.40 xERA suggesting he may have been unlucky in earlier outings. Leiter’s average projections for innings pitched and earned runs allowed imply he could handle the Rockies' high-strikeout offense effectively, especially since he will be pitching against a lineup that ranks 1st in strikeouts this season.

Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado, but he has not been able to find his rhythm this year, holding a dismal record of 0-5 with an ERA of 6.41. The projections indicate that he may face difficulties against the Rangers' lineup, which, despite ranking 25th in overall offensive production, has the potential to exploit Freeland's struggles, particularly with an implied team total of 5.07 runs for today's game.

With the Rangers favored heavily in this matchup, they aim to take advantage of the Rockies' weaknesses, particularly their poor offensive showing and Freeland's current form. Expect a competitive game with a potentially high-scoring output as these two teams clash in Texas.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Recording 14.8 outs per outing this year on average, Kyle Freeland falls in the 25th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mickey Moniak has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's matchup, Brenton Doyle is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 7.36 figure is a good deal higher than his 5.16 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Josh Smith will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.1, Texas Rangers 4.43

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

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