Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Pick – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Colorado Rockies at Globe Life Field in what marks the third game of their series. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Rangers holding a record of 22-21, while the Rockies have plummeted to a dismal 7-35. The Rangers are looking to improve their standing, especially after a rough stretch, while the Rockies are searching for any semblance of momentum.

Texas is expected to send Patrick Corbin to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 302nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, Corbin has managed to post a solid ERA of 3.13 this season. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a regression. He faces a Rockies offense that has the highest strikeout rate in the league, which plays into Corbin’s strengths as a low-strikeout pitcher. If he can limit hard contact against a lineup that has struggled to produce power this year, he could guide the Rangers to a much-needed victory.

On the other side, Colorado will counter with Antonio Senzatela, who has had a tough season with a 5.77 ERA. Although he’s shown flashes of potential, the Rangers’ bats may find some comfort against him given their ability to avoid walks. With Senzatela projected to allow 3.2 earned runs and 6.2 hits on average, the Rangers’ offense, despite ranking 27th in MLB, should create opportunities.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, and with the Rangers favored heavily at -240, the projections suggest a significant advantage in Texas’s favor as they look to capitalize on Colorado's struggles.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

In his previous outing, Antonio Senzatela was rolling and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Ryan McMahon has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.3-mph to 97.8-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Brenton Doyle is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Patrick Corbin projects to strikeout an average of 5.7 bats in today's outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Despite posting a .219 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joc Pederson has had some very poor luck given the .123 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Texas Rangers have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.45 Units / 48% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.34, Texas Rangers 4.79

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers

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