Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Pick – 5/12/2025

The Texas Rangers will host the Colorado Rockies in an interleague matchup on May 12, 2025, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers currently sit at 20-21, showing signs of an average season, while the Rockies are struggling significantly with a dismal 7-33 record. Given the state of both teams, this game carries considerable weight, particularly for the Rangers, who are looking to capitalize on a favorable matchup.

Tyler Mahle is projected to take the mound for Texas, coming off a strong start earlier in the week where he delivered a complete game shutout. His excellent ERA of 1.48 suggests he has been a key player in the Rangers' rotation, despite some indicators, like his 4.08 xFIP, hinting that he may not sustain this level of performance. Mahle's matchup against the Rockies' offense, which ranks 1st in strikeouts, plays to his favor as he thrives against high-strikeout teams. He projects to allow an average of only 2.2 earned runs today, which could set the stage for a solid performance.

On the other side, Chase Dollander will pitch for Colorado. He has a concerning ERA of 7.71 and is projected to pitch 5.0 innings—less than ideal for a starting pitcher. Dollander's high walk rate of 10.0% could be problematic, especially against a Rangers lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for least walks taken.

The Rangers' offense, however, has its challenges, ranking 27th in MLB. Coupled with the Rockies' 29th ranked offense, both teams are struggling to generate runs consistently. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainties surrounding both lineups. Despite the Rangers’ offensive woes, their strong pitching and favorable projections could help them exceed their implied team total of 5.30 runs, making them the more appealing option for bettors today.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan McMahon has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 94-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Texas Rangers infield defense grades out as the strongest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson's true offensive ability to be a .342, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .116 deviation between that figure and his actual .226 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.78, Texas Rangers 4.86

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.