Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on March 28, 2025, they look to start their season with a win. The Rays are continuing their quest for postseason glory, while the Rockies are struggling to find their footing. This game marks the first in a series between the two teams, and Tampa Bay enters as a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -200.

In terms of pitching matchups, the Rays will send Ryan Pepiot to the mound, who is ranked as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. While Pepiot has shown promise, he does have some concerning statistics; he projects to allow an average of 3.6 hits and 1.3 walks per game, both of which could lead to trouble against any lineup. However, he also projects to strike out an average of 6.3 batters and allow just 1.7 earned runs, showcasing his potential to dominate.

Opposing him will be Kyle Freeland, who unfortunately ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Freeland's projections indicate he is likely to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. His strikeout rate sits at a below-average 4.2, and he also projects to give up a concerning 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks per game.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Rays holding an implied team total of 4.64 runs, they appear well-equipped to capitalize on Freeland's struggles. Bettors should keep an eye on the matchup as Tampa Bay looks to maintain their strong form against a Rockies team that has yet to find its rhythm.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kyle Freeland in the 25th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 146 games (+24.21 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.25 Units / 100% ROI)
• Jacob Stallings has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)

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