Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 6/7/2024

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

In an upcoming National League matchup scheduled for June 7, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will be hosting the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Cardinals holding a below-average record of 29-32, while the Rockies have had a terrible season with a record of 22-40.

On the mound for the Cardinals, right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn is projected to start. Lynn has started 12 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.23. However, his advanced-stat projections suggest that he may have been lucky this season and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Lynn will be left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber for the Rockies. Gomber has started 11 games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 3.06. Similar to Lynn, his advanced-stat projections indicate potential regression in his performance.

The Cardinals offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB, while the Rockies offense sits at 18th. The Cardinals have shown strength in team batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th, respectively. On the other hand, the Rockies have struggled with team stolen bases, ranking last in the league.

In terms of bullpens, the Cardinals have one of the best in the league, ranking 5th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Rockies have the worst bullpen, ranking 30th.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are the favorites with a moneyline of -190, giving them an implied win probability of 63%. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 37%.

With the Cardinals having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, it seems like they could be the team to watch in this game. However, baseball is full of surprises, and anything can happen on the field. Stay tuned for an exciting National League matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies on June 7, 2024.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Austin Gomber has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.3% more often this season (60.2%) than he did last season (54.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.8) provides evidence that Michael Toglia has been lucky since the start of last season with his 23.9 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jake Cave hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-best among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+5.95 Units / 25% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.54 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.69

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.