Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/6/2024

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On June 6, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium. This National League matchup features the Cardinals, who are having a below-average season with a record of 29-31, hosting the struggling Rockies, who hold a record of 21-40.

The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, an elite right-handed pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gray has started 10 games this year and holds an impressive 7-3 record with a 3.00 ERA. His 2.48 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward. Gray is expected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings and strike out 6.4 batters.

Opposing Gray on the mound will be Cal Quantrill, a right-handed pitcher for the Rockies. Our projections indicate that Quantrill is a below-average pitcher by MLB standards. In his 12 starts this season, Quantrill has a 4-4 record with a 3.84 ERA. However, his peripherals suggest that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances.

The Cardinals offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season, but they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking 7th, and team home runs, ranking 5th. On the other hand, the Rockies offense ranks 20th overall, with an average team batting average and a low ranking in team home runs and stolen bases.

Defensively, the Cardinals' bullpen is considered the 5th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rockies' bullpen ranks as the worst. This could provide an advantage for the Cardinals in the later innings of the game.

The Cardinals' best hitter this season has been their young talent, Nolan Gorman. Over the last 7 games, Gorman has been on fire, recording 7 hits, 5 runs, 6 RBIs, and 4 home runs, with a batting average of .304 and an impressive 1.186 OPS. As for the Rockies, Elias Diaz has been their standout player over the past week, hitting .368 with a 1.060 OPS.

In terms of team performance, the Cardinals are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -230, implying a 68% chance of victory. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +200, giving them a 32% chance of winning.

Based on the projected stats, Sonny Gray's high strikeout rate matches up well against the Rockies' offense, which has the third-most strikeouts in MLB. However, Gray's low walk rate may not fully exploit the Rockies' impatience at the plate. On the other hand, Cal Quantrill's groundball pitching style may pose a challenge to the powerful Cardinals offense, which ranks fifth in home runs.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The Cardinals have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, while the Rockies have a low implied team total of 3.00 runs.

As the game approaches, baseball fans and bettors alike will eagerly anticipate this clash between the Cardinals and the Rockies. With Sonny Gray's dominant pitching and the Cardinals' offensive firepower, the odds seem to favor the home team. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Rockies will look to defy the odds and come out with a surprise victory.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

In his previous game started, Cal Quantrill struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Elias Diaz's quickness has declined this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.56 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Sonny Gray will post an average of 17.1 outs in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Paul Goldschmidt has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 16.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 30.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+3.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 games (+7.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Cal Quantrill has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 67% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.21 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.43

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.