Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 7/26/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies are set to face off on July 26, 2024, at Oracle Park in a National League West showdown. The Giants, with a 49-55 record, are having a below-average season, while the Rockies' 38-65 record reflects a truly dismal year. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

The Giants will send left-hander Kyle Harrison to the mound. Harrison, who has a 5-4 record and a solid 3.86 ERA over 17 starts, has been fortunate according to his 4.44 xFIP, suggesting he might regress. Despite being ranked #172 among MLB starting pitchers by advanced Power Rankings, Harrison's projections for this game are relatively favorable. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Harrison to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, and striking out 5.6 batters on average.

On the other side, the Rockies will counter with southpaw Kyle Freeland. Freeland has struggled this season, posting a 2-3 record with an unsightly 5.63 ERA over nine starts. However, his 4.49 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and could improve. Freeland's projections for this game are less optimistic, with an average of 5.3 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and only 4.7 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Giants rank 15th in team batting average and 23rd in home runs, showcasing an average lineup with limited power. Conversely, the Rockies boast the 14th best offense, ranking 12th in batting average and 10th in home runs, indicating a more potent lineup.

Bullpen strength could play a pivotal role in this matchup. The Giants' bullpen is ranked 2nd best, a stark contrast to the Rockies' bullpen, which sits at 23rd. This disparity could be crucial in a close game.

Both teams' best hitters have been in fine form recently. For the Giants, Tyler Fitzgerald has been on a tear over the last week, batting .474 with four home runs and a 1.899 OPS. The Rockies' Jacob Stallings has also been hot, hitting .438 with a 1.313 OPS over his last four games.

With the Giants being substantial favorites at -180 and an implied win probability of 62%, they appear to have the edge, especially given their superior bullpen and the Rockies' poor season. However, Freeland's potential for positive regression adds an intriguing element to this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2344 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2293 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .319 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison projects to strikeout an average of 5.6 hitters in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 69 games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 56% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.75 vs San Francisco Giants 4.54

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