Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 5/18/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ty Blach - Rockies
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

In an intriguing National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants will host the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park on May 18, 2024. The Giants, with a below-average season record of 21-25, are hoping to turn things around on their home turf. Meanwhile, the struggling Rockies, who hold a terrible 15-29 record, are looking for a much-needed victory.

On the mound for the Giants, left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison is projected to start. With a win-loss record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.42, Harrison has been a solid contributor this season. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face some challenges in the future. In contrast, the Rockies will rely on left-handed pitcher Ty Blach, who has a 1-1 record and an excellent 3.00 ERA. Like Harrison, Blach's 4.31 xFIP indicates he may face some regression in his performance.

The Giants offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 22nd best in MLB. Their team batting average sits at 21st in the league, while their home run and stolen base rankings are 19th and 29th, respectively. On the other hand, the Rockies offense has performed slightly better, ranking 17th overall in MLB. Their team batting average lands them at 18th, while their home run and stolen base rankings are 24th and 30th, respectively.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Giants boast the top-ranked bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Rockies rank 15th in the league. This could give the Giants an advantage in the late innings of the game.

Looking at the projections, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a higher win probability of 63% compared to the Rockies' 37%. Based on the current odds, the Giants are also the betting favorites with a moneyline of -195, while the Rockies are the underdogs with a moneyline of +165. The implied team total for the Giants is 4.32 runs, while the Rockies have a very low implied team total of 3.18 runs.

Ultimately, this game presents an opportunity for the Giants to capitalize on their home-field advantage and their stronger pitching matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day. Will the Giants extend their winning streak, or will the Rockies surprise everyone with an upset victory? We'll find out when these two teams take the field on May 18.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ty Blach’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2081 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2025 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Elias Diaz's speed has dropped off this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.4 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Brendan Rodgers has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Harrison is expected to ring up an average of 6 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Tyler Fitzgerald has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .317 figure is considerably higher than his .220 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+5.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+10.50 Units / 131% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.30 Units / 47% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.59 vs San Francisco Giants 4.51

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