Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/4/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 4, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League West matchup. The Padres, holding a record of 60-52, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies sit at a disappointing 41-71. This game marks the third in their current series, and the Padres are looking to build on their recent momentum.

In their last game, the Padres displayed their offensive prowess, taking advantage of a struggling Rockies pitching staff. The Padres' lineup ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average this season, a testament to their ability to consistently put the bat on the ball. Manny Machado has been the standout hitter for the Padres lately, racking up 8 hits and 3 home runs in his last 5 games, boasting a stellar .421 batting average over that stretch.

On the mound, the Padres project to start Matt Waldron, who has had a solid season despite a below-average Power Ranking at #144 among starting pitchers. Waldron's ERA stands at 3.89, indicating he can keep runs to a minimum. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.8 batters on average today. However, his tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.2 walks could open the door for the Rockies' offense, which ranks 16th overall.

Cal Quantrill, slated to pitch for the Rockies, has struggled this season and is considered a low-strikeout pitcher, which could play into the Padres' hands given their low strikeout rate. The projections suggest a favorable matchup for the Padres, indicating they should score around 4.80 runs against a Rockies team that has faltered on both sides of the ball.

With the Padres' bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they have the depth to close out games effectively. As they look to capitalize on their home field advantage at Petco Park, the Padres are positioned well to secure another victory against the Rockies.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Michael Toglia has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 46.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 33.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Matt Waldron must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary offerings a lot this year: 66.5% of the time, placing in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jackson Merrill has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 74 games (+4.20 Units / 6% ROI)
• Cal Quantrill has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.98 vs San Diego Padres 4.95

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.