Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Pick – 9/14/2025
Sunday brings a matinee at Petco Park as Colorado visits San Diego on September 14, 2025, scheduled for 1:10 PM PT. San Diego is fighting for positioning in both the NL West race and the race for a Wild Card spot. They will look to take advantage of facing a struggling Rockies team. Here, I break down this NL West matchup and give you my Rockies vs Padres prediction.
Our Rockies vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Padres -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025; 4:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: German Márquez vs Yu Darvish
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: Padres TV and Rockies.TV
Key Storylines
- The Padres have won two of the first three games of this series. They would have liked to have swept the Rockies here to help their chances in the NL West. But winning three out of four wouldn’t be a bad result either.
- The Rockies are 41-108 so far this season and their struggles give the Padres a huge advantage going into this game.
- Home/road splits: The Padres are 46-28 at home and the Rockies 18-56 on the road.
Starting Pitching Outlook
Yu Darvish lines up for San Diego and has stabilized his level of performance after midseason health hiccups, carrying a 5.65 ERA but a far better 1.17 WHIP across 57.1 innings. His depth of pitch repertoire still plays against a Colorado lineup that strikes out often on the road and struggles versus right-handers. German Márquez will start for Colorado with a 6.31 ERA over 112.2 innings. His slider hasn’t generated the consistent whiffs of past years, and hard contact against him has spiked. If Márquez does not locate first-pitch strikes, San Diego’s contact quality should tilt this outing early.
Recent team streaks
- The Rockies have lost four of their last five games going into today.
- San Diego has won two of their last three contests.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Home Run | Over 0.5 HR |
| Yu Darvish | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 Ks |
| German Márquez | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 Ks |
| Luis Arraez | Total Bases | Over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- San Diego holds a 9-3 advantage over the Rockies in their season series this year.
- This is the last game between the Rockies and Padres scheduled in 2025.
Rockies vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Rockies 2 – Padres 5
Win Probability: Rockies 26%, Padres 74%
Final Thoughts
San Diego’s edges stack up in all the right places: starting pitcher projection, bullpen performance, home record, and season-long dominance over Colorado. The visitors’ struggles against right-handed pitching and on the road are pronounced, while San Diego’s lineup has enough thunder from Machado and Merrill, plus a high-contact table-setter in Arraez, to produce crooked numbers against a vulnerable starter. With market prices reflecting the gulf, the best way to attack is Padres -1.5 at a palatable price.
