Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Preview – 8/3/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies
  • Martin Perez - Padres

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 3, 2024, they find themselves in a solid position with a record of 59-52, showcasing an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling, sitting at 41-70 and having one of the worst seasons in the league. In their last matchup on Friday night, the Rockies emerged victorious, and they will look to build on that momentum as they continue their series.

Starting for the Padres is Martin Perez, who has had a challenging season with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 5.20. However, his 4.64 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Perez is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage.

On the other side, Tanner Gordon takes the mound for the Rockies. Gordon's struggles are evident in his 0-3 record and a dismal ERA of 8.80. His low strikeout rate of 16.9% could spell trouble against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for the least strikeouts. The Padres' offense has been potent, ranking 10th overall and boasting the top batting average in the league, which positions them well against Gordon.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Padres are favored to win, with projections indicating they could score around 5.08 runs, while the Rockies are projected for a mere 3.98 runs. With the Padres' strong bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, and their recent offensive prowess—highlighted by Manny Machado's impressive performance over the last week—the Padres look to solidify their position with another win against the struggling Rockies.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tanner Gordon in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Elias Diaz is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Colorado's 92.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #10 squad in the game this year by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Martin Perez's 2037.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 11th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so David Peralta is assured to hold the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 78 games (+4.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4 vs San Diego Padres 5.04

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.