Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 4/3/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Colorado Rockies on April 3, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies currently sit at the top of the National League with a strong 4-1 record this season, showcasing solid early-season form. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling at 1-4, marking a rough start for them.

In their previous encounter, the Phillies emerged victorious, continuing their upward trajectory. Taijuan Walker, projected to start for the Phillies, has had a rough time in terms of rankings, sitting as the 294th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, he does project to pitch an average of 5.2 innings while allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs today, a figure that’s slightly below average. His strikeout rate of 4.3 may not inspire confidence, but the Rockies' struggles at the plate could play to his advantage.

Antonio Senzatela, scheduled to pitch for the Rockies, also finds himself among the lower ranks of MLB pitchers. He projects to allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.9 hits over 5.2 innings, indicating a challenge against a potent Phillies lineup. With both pitchers struggling, the game total is set high at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks.

Betting odds favor the Phillies significantly at -210, suggesting an implied team total of 5.57 runs. As they aim to capitalize on their current form against a struggling Rockies squad, the Phillies look to build on their early success in this three-game series.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

In his last outing, Antonio Senzatela was in good form and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Recording 14.8 outs per GS since the start of last season on average, Taijuan Walker places him the 18th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This season, there has been a decline in Bryson Stott's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.05 ft/sec last year to 24.77 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Philadelphia Phillies hitters collectively rank among the best in baseball since the start of last season (2nd- overall) as it relates to their 98-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their highest exit velocity baseballs.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 109 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.25 Units / 100% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)

• Date: April 3, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

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