Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are set to host the Colorado Rockies on August 23, 2024, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Yankees currently sit in a strong position with a record of 75-53, showcasing a stellar season that has them in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Rockies struggle significantly at 47-81, reflecting a year to forget.

In their last outing, the Yankees got a win over the Cleveland Guardians, while the Rockies are hoping to rebound from a loss to the Washington Nationals. The Yankees' lineup ranks as the best in MLB this season, bolstered by Aaron Judge, who has been the hottest hitter over the last week, recording 8 hits, 6 runs, and 5 home runs in just 6 games. This offensive firepower will be critical as they face Rockies' left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough season with a 5.97 ERA and a 3-5 record over 14 starts.

Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. Rodon has been an above-average pitcher this season, ranked 70th among MLB starters and boasting a solid 4.34 ERA. He projects to strike out an impressive 8.5 batters today, which could be a significant factor against a Rockies lineup that ranks 17th in offense. Furthermore, Rodon’s ability to limit earned runs—projecting to allow just 2.1 today—will be crucial against a Rockies team that has struggled to score consistently.

The Yankees are substantial favorites, with a moneyline of -280 and an implied team total of 5.28 runs. In contrast, the Rockies sit as underdogs at +235, with a low implied total of 3.22 runs. Given the Yankees' offensive strength and Rodon's matchup against Freeland, they are well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Kyle Freeland encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jordan Beck has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 76.3-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today's game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all starting pitchers, Carlos Rodon's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge's true offensive talent to be a .426, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .052 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .478 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 67 games (+18.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jacob Stallings has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+9.90 Units / 141% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.45 vs New York Yankees 5.36

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