Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/31/2025

On May 31, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field in a National League matchup. After a tough loss yesterday, the Mets are looking to bounce back as they currently sit with a solid 35-22 record, showcasing their strong season. In contrast, the Rockies have struggled mightily, holding a dismal 9-48 record.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, and he’s had an impressive season thus far, with a 5-3 record and an excellent ERA of 1.46. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 54th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression, as he has allowed more earned runs than his ERA would imply. Senga's ability to strike out batters, projecting an average of 8.0 strikeouts today, could prove pivotal against a Rockies lineup that ranks as the 29th best in MLB.

On the other hand, Antonio Senzatela is slated to start for Colorado. With a 1-9 record and a troubling ERA of 6.50, he ranks among the worst pitchers in the league. Senzatela’s low strikeout rate may hinder him against a Mets offense that ranks 9th best overall and boasts an implied team total of 5.32 runs for this game.

With the Mets being a heavy favorite at -410 on the moneyline, they are expected to capitalize on the Rockies' weaknesses. Given their strong offensive performance and Senga’s solid pitching, the Mets have a favorable outlook as they aim for a decisive victory.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela's 2210-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 24th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ryan McMahon is apt to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Brenton Doyle hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because groundball pitchers hold a notable advantage over groundball bats, Kodai Senga and his 36% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today's game going up against 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, hitters like Juan Soto who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Antonio Senzatela.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 54 games (+15.87 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jordan Beck has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.54, New York Mets 5.02

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

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