Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ty Blach - Rockies
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies on September 7, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the National League. The Brewers, with an impressive record of 81-60, are firmly in the playoff race, while the Rockies, sitting at 53-89, are struggling significantly. In their previous matchup, the Rockies secured a surprise victory, one they will look to build on here.

Tobias Myers is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, boasting a solid ERA of 3.00 and a Win/Loss record of 6-5 over 21 starts this year. Despite being ranked the 194th best starting pitcher in the league according to advanced statistics, his ERA suggests that he has performed well, even if his xFIP of 4.15 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate. He projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings today, allowing around 2.1 earned runs, which bodes well for the Brewers.

On the other side, the Rockies will counter with Ty Blach, who has struggled this season with a 6.65 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 3-7. His xFIP of 5.10 suggests he might have been unlucky, but his projections indicate a difficult outing ahead, estimating just 4.5 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 9th in MLB and are particularly effective with a .263 batting average, placing them 5th. Their lineup has been bolstered by Jackson Chourio, who has excelled recently with a .333 batting average and 1.422 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rockies struggle at 21st in MLB offensive rankings, making this matchup even more favorable for Milwaukee.

The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Brewers are expected to dominate this game, with a high implied team total of 5.18 runs compared to the Rockies' 3.32. Given the disparities in pitching, offense, and recent form, the Brewers are positioned as strong favorites to secure another win.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ty Blach has relied on his sinker 6.5% less often this season (49.2%) than he did last season (55.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Ezequiel Tovar has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .322 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .279 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brice Turang is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 57 games at home (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 away games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.59 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.9

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.