Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies on September 8, 2024, both teams are in markedly different places. The Brewers, sitting at 82-60, are enjoying a strong season and are firmly in the playoff hunt. In contrast, the Rockies have struggled mightily, with a record of 53-90, reflecting a disappointing campaign.

In their last game, the Brewers showcased their dominance with a decisive win, while the Rockies continued to falter. This matchup features Freddy Peralta, projected to start for Milwaukee, who ranks as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Peralta has had a solid year, with a 10-7 record and a respectable ERA of 3.75. His ability to strike out batters (27.3 K% this season) gives him a significant edge against the Rockies, who have the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, Kyle Freeland is set to take the mound for Colorado. While Freeland has shown flashes of potential, his 4-7 record and 5.30 ERA indicate a season filled with challenges. Although his xFIP of 4.23 suggests he might improve, his current form may not be enough to contain a potent Brewers lineup that ranks 10th in MLB offensively.

With the Brewers projected to score an impressive 4.94 runs, the Rockies’ low implied team total of 3.06 runs underscores their struggles. Milwaukee's offense has been particularly effective, boasting a 5th rank in team batting average, which bodes well for their chances today. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, which feels just right given the current dynamics of both teams. As the Brewers look to build on their success, they remain heavy favorites to secure another win against a Rockies team desperate for answers.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland has a mean projection of 2.83 earned runs today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jake Cave has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 80.2-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Colorado Rockies batters collectively rank in the cellar of baseball this year ( 9th-worst) as far as their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's curveball percentage has dropped by 6.5% from last season to this one (12.5% to 6%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

As it relates to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has had some very good luck this year. His 23.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 139 games (+13.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.21 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.51

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.