Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/28/2025

On June 28, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Colorado Rockies at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Brewers are enjoying a solid season with a record of 46-36, while the Rockies have struggled mightily, sitting at a dismal 18-64. In their last encounter, the Brewers dominated, showcasing their strength in a game that highlighted the stark contrast in both teams' performance this season.

The Brewers are set to start Quinn Priester, who, despite being ranked just 131st among MLB starting pitchers, boasts a respectable 3.68 ERA this season. His skill set, particularly against a Rockies team that has the highest strikeout rate in MLB, gives him an edge. Priester projects to pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs, which is an impressive forecast against a struggling offense.

On the other side, Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has had a rough year with a staggering 6.48 ERA. Despite being one of the worst pitchers in the league, projections suggest he could improve, but his track record this season raises concerns. With a high groundball percentage, he may be more successful against the Brewers, who have the 25th-ranked offense in home runs this season, but they also rank 2nd in steals, which could exploit Senzatela’s weaknesses.

The Brewers are currently favored with a moneyline of -230, indicating strong confidence in their ability to secure the win today. With an implied team total of 5.37 runs, they are projected to capitalize on their home-field advantage against a struggling Rockies squad, which has a low implied total of 3.63 runs. As both teams take the field today, it will be a crucial opportunity for the Brewers to continue their momentum and further plunge the Rockies into a season of disappointment.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Because groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Antonio Senzatela (46.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 4 GB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan Ritter's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 82.2-mph seasonal average has lowered to 72.6-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Colorado Rockies hitters collectively rank near the cellar of MLB this year ( 8th-worst) in regard to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Quinn Priester will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing batters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, batters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Antonio Senzatela.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 79 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+7.77 Units / 9% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.84, Milwaukee Brewers 4.51

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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