Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies on September 22, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, the stakes are high for the Dodgers, who are having a stellar season with a 92-63 record. This National League West matchup sees the Dodgers still in the hunt for postseason glory, while the Rockies, at 60-95, are merely playing for pride at this point.

The Dodgers will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has been nothing short of elite this season. His 2.63 ERA and 28.5% strikeout rate have been instrumental in the Dodgers' success, although his 3.40 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. However, against a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts, Yamamoto's high-strikeout prowess could be a decisive factor. The Dodgers' offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, also stands out, with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge over the last week with a scorching .452 batting average and five home runs.

On the flip side, the Rockies will rely on Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled mightily in his limited action this season. With a 6.00 ERA and a concerning 11.50 xERA, Senzatela faces a daunting task against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in walks. The Rockies' offense, ranked 20th, will need a significant boost, particularly from Charlie Blackmon, who has been their best hitter over the last seven games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a commanding 78% chance of victory, slightly above their implied win probability. With the Dodgers' superior pitching, offense, and bullpen, they're poised to continue their winning ways against a struggling Rockies team. Expect the Dodgers to capitalize on their advantages and inch closer to securing their postseason aspirations.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Antonio Senzatela to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brendan Rodgers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Considering the 0.43 deviation between Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 10.43 K/9 and his 10.00 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .345 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .357 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games (+17.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 121 games (+8.19 Units / 7% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+12.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.31 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.85

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