Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 7/10/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Frankie Montas - Reds

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies are set to clash on July 10, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Reds holding a 44-48 record and the Rockies at a dismal 32-60. Despite their below-average performances, the Reds have a noticeable edge in this matchup.

Frankie Montas, a right-hander, will take the mound for the Reds. Montas has been somewhat fortunate this season, sporting a 4.19 ERA but with underlying metrics like a 4.80 xERA suggesting regression. He has a 4-6 record over 16 starts and is ranked #99 among MLB starting pitchers according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X. Montas is expected to pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs while striking out 6.2 batters on average.

On the other side, the Rockies will counter with lefty Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough year. Freeland's 6.62 ERA is among the worst in MLB, and his 0-3 record over seven starts reflects his struggles. However, his 4.90 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could see some improvement. Freeland is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 3.8 batters.

The Reds' offense ranks poorly overall, sitting at 23rd in MLB, with a particularly bad team batting average at 27th. However, they lead the league in stolen bases, which could be a factor against Freeland. Spencer Steer has been a bright spot for Cincinnati, hitting four home runs and racking up eight RBIs over the last week with a 1.192 OPS.

The Rockies' offense is slightly better, ranking 19th overall, but they are still below average in home runs and stolen bases. Brenton Doyle has been on fire lately, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.683 OPS over his last six games.

Cincinnati’s bullpen, ranked 26th, is worse than Colorado’s, which is 22nd. This could play a role late in the game, but with the Reds being big betting favorites at -175, their implied win probability stands at 62%. The Rockies, as underdogs at +155, have an implied win probability of 38%. Based on these odds, the Reds have a high implied team total of 5.09 runs, while the Rockies' implied total is 3.91 runs.

Overall, the Reds have the edge in this matchup, particularly with Montas on the mound and Steer swinging a hot bat. While both teams have significant weaknesses, the projections favor Cincinnati to come out on top.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's higher usage rate of his fastball this season (52.6 compared to 46.7% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ezequiel Tovar has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jonathan India's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 92.4-mph average last season has fallen off to 87-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+12.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 30 away games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.00 Units / 16% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.3 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.16

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.