Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Picks 6/29/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies prepare for the second game of their series on June 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of challenging seasons. The White Sox are struggling with a dismal 23-61 record, while the Rockies aren't faring much better at 27-54. In yesterday's game, the White Sox managed a 5-3 victory, giving them a rare moment of triumph in an otherwise bleak season.

Jonathan Cannon will take the mound for Chicago. The right-hander has had a rough start to his MLB career, ranking as the 185th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. Cannon's season has been marked by inconsistency, highlighted by his last start where he was shelled for 5 earned runs over just 1 inning. However, his 4.59 ERA is somewhat misleading, as his 3.60 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Cannon's low walk rate (4.5%) may help him against a Rockies lineup that ranks 4th in least walks in MLB, potentially playing to Colorado's impatience at the plate.

On the other side, Cal Quantrill will get the start for Colorado. Quantrill has put together a respectable 3.50 ERA this season, but his 4.46 xFIP indicates he might have been fortunate thus far. Despite his solid win/loss record of 6-5, Quantrill's low strikeout rate (3.7 projected strikeouts today) and tendency to allow a high number of hits (6.6 projected) could spell trouble against even a struggling White Sox offense. Chicago's lack of power might not be as detrimental against Quantrill, a high-groundball pitcher who limits home runs.

Offensively, the Rockies hold a slight edge. They rank 16th in MLB in overall offense, compared to the White Sox's league-worst 30th ranking. Ryan McMahon has been a bright spot for Colorado, batting .274 with 14 home runs and an .824 OPS. Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn has been the standout for Chicago, though the team has struggled mightily at the plate overall.

The White Sox bullpen, ranked 29th, is another glaring weakness, contrasting with the Rockies' more average bullpen, ranked 18th. This discrepancy could be pivotal in a close game, especially considering both teams' projected high scoring totals.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Chicago a 55% win probability for today's game, suggesting there might be value in betting on the White Sox, especially given their current moneyline odds. With both teams looking to salvage some pride in a lost season, expect a competitive matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jonathan Cannon will record an average of 2.8 earned runs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Paul DeJong's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 83.2-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 44 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Toglia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+12.55 Units / 114% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.77 vs Chicago White Sox 4.86

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