Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Picks 6/28/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox will host the Colorado Rockies on June 28, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. Both teams are enduring dismal seasons, with the White Sox sitting at 22-61 and the Rockies at 27-53. This interleague matchup will feature Drew Thorpe for Chicago and Dakota Hudson for Colorado, both right-handed pitchers with less-than-stellar records this season.

Drew Thorpe has a rough start to his MLB career, posting a 0-1 record with an 8.64 ERA in his first two outings. Despite these numbers, his 6.93 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Thorpe's low strikeout rate (9.3%) could be a concern, but he faces a Rockies lineup that strikes out frequently (4th most in MLB), potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Dakota Hudson brings a 2-9 record and a 4.89 ERA over 15 starts. Hudson's groundball rate (52%) might neutralize the White Sox's weak power, but his high walk rate (11.1%) could be a problem, even against an impatient Chicago offense that ranks 2nd in fewest walks.

Offensively, the Rockies have the edge, ranking 16th overall compared to Chicago's league-worst 30th. The Rockies also boast a better batting average (11th) and an average ranking in stolen bases (20th), though their home run production (24th) remains subpar. Meanwhile, the White Sox's offense is anemic across the board, except for an average ranking in stolen bases (16th).

One bright spot for the White Sox has been Gavin Sheets, who is hitting .400 with a .950 OPS over the last week. For the Rockies, Ezequiel Tovar has been equally impressive, batting .400 with a 1.055 OPS and a home run in the same span.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the White Sox with a 55% win probability, higher than the betting market's implied 51%. Given the close moneyline odds and favorable projections, there might be value in backing the White Sox in this contest.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #8 HR venue in MLB — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

As it relates to his batting average, Nolan Jones has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .276 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Paul DeJong has strong power (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Dakota Hudson struggles to strike batters out (9th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 57 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.26 vs Chicago White Sox 4.49

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