Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/28/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Colorado Rockies on May 28, 2025, in a pivotal matchup as both teams continue their series. The Cubs are enjoying a fantastic season with a record of 34-21, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 9-46. In their last game, the Cubs showcased their dominance with a decisive victory, further solidifying their position among the top teams in the National League.

Projected starters for this game are Matthew Boyd for the Cubs and Tanner Gordon for the Rockies. Boyd has been impressive this season, holding a 4-2 record and an outstanding ERA of 3.42. His performance places him as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB, giving Chicago a strong advantage. Conversely, Gordon's 1-1 record and ERA of 4.38 indicate he has had a rough start, and advanced metrics suggest he may be underperforming relative to his capabilities.

The Cubs' offense ranks 3rd in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that has hit 78 home runs this season. With Boyd's high-flyball tendencies facing a Rockies team that ranks 28th in offensive production, this matchup heavily favors the Cubs. The Rockies have struggled to find their rhythm, ranking dead last in team batting average and 27th in home runs.

The Cubs are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -335, reflecting their strong standing and the projections that suggest they will score around 5.14 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies' low implied team total of 2.86 runs highlights the challenge they face against a potent Cubs squad. With the Cubs' best hitter performing at an elite level recently, the Rockies will need a miracle to turn the tide in this series.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Tanner Gordon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, batters like Ezequiel Tovar who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Matthew Boyd.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Compared to their .318 overall projected rate, the .301 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 8 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Matthew Boyd will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.36, Chicago Cubs 4.71

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.