Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/27/2025

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field on May 27, 2025, the stakes couldn't be clearer. The Cubs are enjoying a solid season with a 33-21 record, positioning themselves well in the National League race, while the Rockies are struggling mightily at 9-45. The Cubs recently took the first game of this series, and they look to capitalize on their momentum against a Rockies team that has been lacking in both offense and pitching.

Cade Horton is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. While he ranks as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his low projected earned runs allowed (1.6) and high strikeout rate (6.0) could give him an edge against a Rockies lineup that has the most strikeouts in the league. Although Horton has a 4.40 ERA, his 3.40 xERA suggests he might be due for better performance. In contrast, Rockies starter German Marquez has struggled significantly, sporting a dreadful 7.66 ERA and a 1-7 record this season.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB, including a remarkable 1st place in team batting average. In contrast, the Rockies rank 28th in overall offense and dead last in batting average, highlighting their struggles at the plate.

The Cubs are substantial favorites with a moneyline of -320, reflecting their high implied team total of 4.78 runs. Given the current trends and disparities in performance, the Cubs look poised to secure another victory against the Rockies, who are projected for a meager 2.72 runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. German Marquez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 57% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Colorado Rockies bats as a group place 21st- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 92.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of all starting pitchers, Cade Horton's fastball velocity of 94.8 mph ranks in the 81st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.32 Units / 20% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.11, Chicago Cubs 4.24

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Cade Horton - Cubs

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