Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/26/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Colorado Rockies on May 26, 2025, at Wrigley Field in what is the first game of a series between these two National League teams. The Cubs are riding high with a record of 32-21, showcasing one of the league’s top offenses, ranked 3rd overall. They emerged victorious in their last game against the Reds on May 25, winning 11-8. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling significantly at 9-44, having lost their last game 5-4 to the Yankees.

The pitching matchup features Jameson Taillon for the Cubs, who has had a solid season with a 4.13 ERA, although his 5.37 FIP suggests he may be a bit fortunate in his performances. Taillon pitched well in his last start on May 20, throwing 7 innings with only 1 earned run allowed. He projects to throw 6.0 innings today, with an elite expectation of allowing just 2.0 earned runs. Facing him will be Carson Palmquist, who has struggled mightily with an 11.88 ERA and a tendency to give up runs, as evidenced by his recent outing where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings.

Cubs' offense, buoyed by their 3rd best ranking in home runs and a .279 batting average, poses a significant threat to Palmquist, who struggles with command (11.1% BB rate). With the Rockies ranking 28th in offensive performance, the Cubs are favored heavily, with a moneyline of -350, reflecting their strong position in this matchup. As the Cubs look to capitalize on the Rockies' woes, the projections suggest an enticing opportunity for bettors to back the Cubs in what appears to be a significant mismatch.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Carson Palmquist struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and posted 0 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball hitters like Mickey Moniak are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Colorado Rockies hitters jointly place 21st- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 92.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Justin Turner is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.32 Units / 18% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.16, Chicago Cubs 4.36

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Palmquist - Rockies
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.