Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/15/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on June 15, 2025, both teams are struggling in the standings, with the Braves sitting at 31-38 and the Rockies at a dismal 13-57. The Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, while the Rockies will counter with Austin Gomber. These teams recently faced off, and it resulted in a win for the Braves, adding to the Rockies' woes as they continue to battle through a terrible season.

Grant Holmes, ranked as the 118th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had an average season with a 4.07 ERA. His projections suggest he’ll pitch around 6.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 7.3 batters. Although Holmes has a high walk rate at 10.6%, he faces a Rockies offense that ranks 29th in batting average and is notoriously patient at the plate, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Austin Gomber is projected to struggle, with estimates of just 4.9 innings pitched and 3.5 earned runs. His performance has placed him among the worst pitchers in MLB, further complicating the Rockies' chances. The Braves offense, ranked 16th overall, has shown flashes of brightness lately, fueled by their best hitter’s impressive .545 batting average over the last week.

This game has a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, which mirrors the average expectations for both offenses. Despite their current records, the Braves are substantial betting favorites with a moneyline of -350, reflecting a strong implied team total of 5.50 runs. In contrast, the Rockies sit as underdogs at +290, struggling with an implied team total of just 3.00 runs. As both teams take the field, it seems the Braves hold the upper hand in this matchup, aiming to capitalize on the Rockies' ongoing difficulties.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sam Hilliard is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Colorado's 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the majors: #24 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes has posted a .234 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Matt Olson will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's game, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.9% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.8, Atlanta Braves 5.54

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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