Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/13/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on June 13, 2025, both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves sitting at 29-38 and the Rockies languishing at a dismal 13-55. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and the Braves come in as heavy favorites, holding a moneyline of -290.

The Braves have been seeking a spark, but they are still dealing with inconsistencies. Bryce Elder is projected to take the mound for Atlanta, bringing a 2-3 record and a 4.08 ERA this season. While his ERA is above average, his 3.45 xFIP suggests he could be due for better luck. Elder’s ability to generate ground balls—boasting a 53% groundball rate—may serve him well against a Rockies lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 30th in home runs.

On the other side, German Marquez will start for Colorado. Marquez has had a rough season as well, with a 2-8 record and a staggering 7.00 ERA. His 4.86 xFIP indicates he might also be due for improvement, but facing a Braves offense that ranks 15th overall might prove challenging. The projections suggest Marquez will allow 3.2 earned runs and struggle with a high number of hits and walks.

Despite their struggles, the Braves' offense has shown flashes of potential, ranking 12th in home runs. With a strong performance from Elder and a favorable matchup against a weak Rockies lineup, Atlanta aims to capitalize on their status as clear favorites. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair, but the Rockies will need to defy the odds to keep pace.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball bats, German Marquez and his 44.7% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today's matchup matching up with 2 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan McMahon has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 92-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Colorado Rockies batters collectively rank near the bottom of the majors this year ( 7th-worst) in regard to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder has utilized his slider 7.5% more often this season (39%) than he did last season (31.5%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Bats such as Ozzie Albies with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like German Marquez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jordan Beck has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.13, Atlanta Braves 5.26

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

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