Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks 8/12/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On August 12, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies in the opening game of their series at Chase Field. As the Diamondbacks sit at 66-53, they are enjoying a strong season and currently sit in playoff contention. In contrast, the Rockies, with a disappointing record of 44-75, have been struggling and are not expected to compete for a postseason spot.

In their last game on August 11, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess by defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 12-5, while the Rockies managed a narrow victory over the Atlanta Braves, winning 9-8. Brandon Pfaadt is projected as the starter for Arizona. He has had an above-average season, ranking as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB with a solid 3.92 ERA. In his last outing on August 7, Pfaadt pitched well, going six innings with two earned runs, six strikeouts, four hits, and just one walk. Despite projecting to allow a high number of hits today, his overall performance suggests he can handle the Rockies' offense.

Meanwhile, Can Quantrill gets the start for the Rockies, entering with a 7-8 record and an ERA of 4.56. This statistic underlines a significant challenge for the Rockies, especially given that the Diamondbacks rank 4th in MLB in overall offensive production this season.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are favored heavily in this matchup with a projected win probability of 69%. They are expected to score around 5.38 runs, while the Rockies are projected for just 3.77 runs. With the Diamondbacks’ potent lineup and a solid pitching performance expected from Pfaadt, the Rockies will need to pull off an upset to keep the game competitive.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

In terms of his home runs, Michael Toglia has experienced some positive variance this year. His 41.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today, Jake Cave is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (93rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Over his last 3 outings, Brandon Pfaadt has produced a significant rise in his fastball velocity: from 93.1 mph over the whole season to 94.2 mph of late.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Eugenio Suarez has strong power (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bradley Blalock struggles to strike batters out (19th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 65 games (+17.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.77 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.36

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