Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/16/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field on May 16, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Diamondbacks sit comfortably with a record of 23-21, showcasing an above-average season, while the Rockies have struggled mightily, holding a dismal 7-36 record that places them among the worst in MLB.

On the mound, Arizona is projected to start Corbin Burnes, who has been a bright spot for the team. With a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.95, Burnes has been effective this season, although the projections suggest he may face some regression. He last pitched on May 10, going 7 innings without allowing any earned runs, a performance that bodes well for his confidence. He’ll face Carson Palmquist, who is making his major league debut.

Given the Diamondbacks' advantageous standing and a favorable pitching matchup, they are positioned to secure another victory against the struggling Rockies, who will need a perfect game plan to change their fortunes. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, bettors should take notice of the potential for a high-scoring affair, favoring Arizona to come out on top.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to the average pitcher, Corbin Burnes has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Michael Toglia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 34% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.63, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.23

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Palmquist - Rockies
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs

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