Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/18/2025

On May 18, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League West matchup. Arizona is currently enjoying an above-average season with a record of 24-22, while the Rockies are struggling significantly, holding a dismal 8-37 record. Last night, the Diamondbacks lost to the Rockies in a shocking result on the diamond.

Merrill Kelly takes the mound for Arizona, bringing an average but relatively effective season thus far, with a 4-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.71. While the projections suggest he may be a bit lucky this year, he still presents a challenge for a Rockies squad that leads the league in strikeouts. As a low-strikeout pitcher, Kelly’s style fits well against an offense that has struggled to make consistent contact.

Conversely, Colorado will start Chase Dollander, who has faced his share of adversity this season, posting a troubling 6.88 ERA. Despite a below-average reputation, projections hint that Dollander might be due for some positive regression. However, he struggles with control, which could spell trouble against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd best in the league. Arizona’s lineup has been particularly potent, boasting power with 63 home runs, and they are well-positioned to capitalize on Dollander’s high-walk tendencies.

With a game total currently set at 9.0 runs and the Diamondbacks favored heavily, they have an implied team total of 5.78 runs. Given the matchup and recent form, expect Arizona to continue their success against a Rockies team desperately searching for answers.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Hunter Goodman (the Rockies's expected catcher in today's game) projects as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Merrill Kelly has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.9% less often this season (58.9%) than he did last season (65.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.57 Units / 20% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.41, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.13

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

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