Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On August 22, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup between two struggling teams. The Nationals, with a record of 57-70, are having a bad season but are coming off a game where they showcased a glimmer of hope by beating these same Rockies. Meanwhile, the Rockies, sitting at 47-80, are facing a terrible season themselves. Both teams are well out of contention, so this game is more about player development and finishing the season strong.

Patrick Corbin is projected to take the mound for the Nationals. Despite his disappointing Win/Loss record of 2-12 and an ERA of 5.92, advanced stats suggest he may be due for better fortune, as his 4.35 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this year. Corbin's low strikeout rate (16.6 K%) may play to his advantage against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, Cal Quantrill will pitch for the Rockies. His ERA is a more respectable 4.59, and he has a balanced Win/Loss record of 8-8. However, his own low strikeout percentage (17.6 K%) could hinder him against a Nationals lineup that strikes out the 6th least in MLB.

In terms of offense, the Nationals rank 22nd overall, struggling particularly with home runs, where they sit at 29th in MLB. They do, however, excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, which could be crucial if they can get runners on base against Quantrill. The Rockies, though averaging better overall at 17th, have their own issues, particularly with stealing bases, where they rank 23rd.

With a high Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup may not be as lopsided as the records suggest, and the Nationals' -130 moneyline indicates that oddsmakers expect a close contest.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has relied on his change-up 12.3% more often this year (34.7%) than he did last year (22.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ryan McMahon has a ton of pop (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin has a pitch-to-contact profile (14th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 12th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Gallo stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Joey Gallo pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 126 games (+8.08 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 90 games (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.50 Units / 95% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.43 vs Washington Nationals 4.43

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