Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 4/12/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 -110, Blue Jays -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Rockies 205, Blue Jays -245
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 32%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 36.87%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 63.13%

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 12, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Rogers Centre. As the home team, the Blue Jays will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. This interleague matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Blue Jays have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 6-7. Their offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB, but they excel in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league. Their best hitter over the last 7 games has been Cavan Biggio, who has recorded 7 hits and a batting average of .412. The Blue Jays bullpen is considered the 19th best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Projected to start for the Blue Jays is right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman. Although his overall performance this season has been disappointing, our Power Rankings consider him the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB. Gausman has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 9.53. However, his 4.46 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve going forward. Gausman is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters.

The Rockies, on the other hand, have had a rough start to the season with a record of 3-10. Their offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB, but they struggle in team home runs and stolen bases. Ezequiel Tovar has been their standout hitter over the last 7 games, recording 11 hits and a batting average of .458. The Rockies bullpen is considered the 8th best in MLB, according to our Power Rankings.

Ryan Feltner, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Rockies. While he has a decent ERA of 3.27, his 2.63 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is expected to perform better in the future. Feltner is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 3.9 batters.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -245, implying a 68% chance of winning. The Rockies, on the other hand, are underdogs with a moneyline of +205, giving them a 32% chance of winning. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Compared to the average starter, Ryan Feltner has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -10.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nolan Jones has exhibited some good exit velocity indicators of late, averaging 103.9-mph on his flyballs over the last two weeks.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman projects as the 11th-best starting pitcher in MLB currently when it comes to his strikeout skill, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Justin Turner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 135 games (+10.04 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies 3.73 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.67

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