Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On August 25, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their interleague series. The Yankees, currently sitting at 76-54, are enjoying a strong season and are positioned well in the standings. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling at 48-82, marking a disappointing campaign.

In their last game, the Rockies showcased their offensive prowess, upsetting the Yankees in the Bronx. Still, the Yankees have been particularly dominant at the plate, and their best hitter over the past week, Aaron Judge, has contributed significantly with 7 hits and 5 home runs in just 6 games.

Marcus Stroman is projected to start for the Yankees, bringing a solid ERA of 3.82 and an average projection of allowing 2.5 earned runs today. While Stroman's advanced-stat Power Ranking places him at #156 among starting pitchers, it’s worth noting that he faces a Rockies lineup that has recorded the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB. This matchup could work to his advantage, considering his low strikeout rate of 16.8%.

On the other hand, Austin Gomber is set to pitch for the Rockies. Gomber has struggled this season, with a 4.64 ERA and projections indicating he may allow 3.4 earned runs today. His low walk rate could be a double-edged sword against a Yankees offense that leads MLB in walks, potentially negating their biggest strength.

With the projections favoring the Yankees significantly, they have an implied team total of 5.27 runs, suggesting a high-scoring game in their favor. The leading MLB projection system anticipates the Yankees to score an impressive 6.10 runs on average, while the Rockies are projected for a modest 4.05 runs. As the Yankees look to maintain their momentum, this game presents a crucial opportunity to capitalize on their offensive firepower against a struggling Rockies team.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber's 89.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 4th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Charlie Blackmon's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.4-mph EV last year has dropped to 84-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Jake Cave is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.1% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #5 HR venue in the league — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Juan Soto is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Yankees's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 94 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+7.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 26% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.95 vs New York Yankees 5.85

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.