Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Best Bet – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bradley Blalock - Rockies
  • Will Warren - Yankees

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 24, 2024, the stakes are high for the Yankees, who are enjoying a stellar season with a record of 76-53. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling mightily at 47-82, marking one of the worst seasons in the league. The Yankees recently showcased their power by dominating the Rockies in the first game of this interleague series, a performance that reflects the stark contrast in the teams' current form.

Starting for the Yankees will be Will Warren, who has had a rough start to his season with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 8.59. However, his xFIP of 4.14 suggests that he may be due for a turnaround, especially against a Rockies lineup that ranks 18th overall in offensive power. The Yankees, on the other hand, boast the 1st best offense in MLB, including ranking 2nd in home runs with 149 this season. This potent offense is led by Aaron Judge, who has been on fire lately, hitting 5 home runs in the last week alone.

The Rockies will counter with Bradley Blalock, who has been more effective with an ERA of 2.92, but his higher xFIP of 5.74 indicates he may not sustain that success against a powerful Yankees lineup. With Blalock's tendency to allow fly balls (40% FB rate), he could be in for a challenging outing, particularly with the Yankees' ability to capitalize on mistakes.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are heavily favored with a projected team total of 5.86 runs, while the Rockies are expected to struggle with an average of just 4.06 runs. Given the stark differences in performance and projections, the Yankees are primed for another strong showing against the Rockies in this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Bradley Blalock has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 11.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Over the last 14 days, Ryan McMahon's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's game, Jake Cave is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.1% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Colorado Rockies have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren in today's game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 103 games (+17.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 49% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.23 vs New York Yankees 6.05

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.