Colorado Rockies at New York Mets Prediction For 7/12/2024

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on July 12, 2024, it's clear that the Mets are in a stronger position. The Mets, who are 47-45 this season, are having an average season but are still well ahead of the Rockies, who are struggling with a 33-61 record.

For this National League matchup, the Mets are projected to start left-hander Sean Manaea, while the Rockies will counter with right-hander Tanner Gordon. Manaea has been fairly consistent this season, posting a 5-3 record with a solid 3.43 ERA. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. On the other hand, Gordon has had a rough go in his limited action, with a 7.11 ERA in just one start. Interestingly, his 3.53 xFIP indicates he could perform better than his current stats suggest.

The Mets' offense, which ranks 9th-best in MLB, will look to capitalize on Gordon's struggles. They rank 4th in home runs, showcasing their power potential. Brandon Nimmo has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .321 with three home runs and 10 RBIs, boasting an impressive 1.081 OPS.

Conversely, the Rockies' offense has been mediocre, ranking 17th overall. They rank poorly in home runs (23rd) and stolen bases (20th), which could make it difficult to generate runs against Manaea. Brenton Doyle has been a bright spot recently, hitting .409 with three home runs and seven RBIs over the last week, but he will need more support from his teammates.

Both teams have underwhelming bullpens, with the Mets ranked 20th and the Rockies at 25th in the Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring game, which aligns with the game total of 9.0 runs.

The Mets are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -235, implying a 68% chance of victory. Given the disparity in team performance and the projected pitching matchups, the Mets seem poised to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In the last 14 days, Ezequiel Tovar's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has averaged 92.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Francisco Alvarez's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 74.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.6% Barrel% of the New York Mets makes them the #4 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 75 games (+14.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 62 games (+11.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 17% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.59 vs New York Mets 5.01

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