Colorado Rockies at New York Mets Pick For 7/13/2024

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Christian Scott - Mets

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets, hosting the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on July 13, 2024, are looking to build on their above-average season. With a record of 48-45, the Mets are still in the hunt, while the Rockies, at 33-62, are enduring a dismal campaign. Yesterday, the Mets edged out the Rockies 7-6, thanks to a strong offensive showing and a substantial Moneyline favorite status of -275.

Christian Scott will take the mound for the Mets. Despite his 0-2 record, Scott's 4.15 ERA and ranking as the #58 best starting pitcher in MLB suggest he's better than his win-loss record indicates. His last outing on July 8 was solid, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 1 hit, and 1 walk. Scott’s matchup against a high-strikeout Rockies offense, which ranks 3rd in most strikeouts, could play to his advantage, despite his low 19.4 K%.

Ryan Feltner, starting for the Rockies, has struggled this season with a 1-8 record and a 5.29 ERA. However, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Feltner's last start on July 8 was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings with 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, 4 hits, and 3 walks. He’ll need to replicate that performance to give the Rockies a chance against a potent Mets offense.

The Mets' lineup, ranked 9th in overall offense, 10th in batting average, and 4th in home runs, is spearheaded by Francisco Lindor. Lindor’s contributions have been significant, with 16 home runs and 48 RBIs this season. The Rockies' offense, ranked 20th overall, will rely heavily on Brenton Doyle, who has been their best hitter with a .277 average and 14 home runs.

The Mets bullpen, ranked 19th, is more reliable than the Rockies' 25th-ranked bullpen, adding another edge for New York. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mets a 64% chance to win, aligning closely with the implied odds of 66%. With the Mets' strong offensive capabilities and Scott's favorable matchup, they are well-positioned to take the second game of the series.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing batters in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ryan McMahon has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Christian Scott’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2181 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2240 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jose Iglesias is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York's 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #8 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 55 games (+8.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.62 vs New York Mets 4.53

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