Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins Best Bet – 6/12/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies face off at Target Field on June 12, 2024, for the third game in their interleague series. The Twins, with a 35-32 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies, at 24-43, are struggling significantly. Minnesota is currently favored with a moneyline of -235 and an implied win probability of 68%.

Minnesota will send right-hander Pablo Lopez to the mound. Despite his 5-6 record and a high ERA of 5.45, advanced metrics suggest Lopez has been unlucky. His 3.43 xFIP points to better days ahead. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Lopez to pitch 6.2 innings, allowing only 2.0 earned runs while striking out 7.9 batters, which is great news for the Twins.

On the flip side, the Rockies will counter with left-hander Austin Gomber. Gomber's 3.38 ERA looks impressive, but his 4.34 xFIP suggests he might've been fortunate thus far. His projections are less favorable, with an expected line of 5.3 innings, 2.9 earned runs, and 4.1 strikeouts. Gomber’s task will be made more difficult by the Twins' offense, which ranks 11th in MLB for home runs.

From a batting perspective, the Twins' offense is average overall, ranking 17th, but their recent standout has been Manuel Margot. Over the last week, Margot has put up a .385 batting average and a stellar 1.159 OPS. On the Rockies' side, Elias Diaz has been their best hitter over the past seven games, boasting a .353 batting average and a 1.009 OPS.

Both teams' bullpens present a stark contrast. The Twins' bullpen is 5th-best according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rockies rank 24th, aligning more closely with their season's overall struggles.

Considering these factors, the Twins seem well-positioned to take advantage of the Rockies' weaknesses and Lopez's expected regression to the mean. This game offers an intriguing look at how advanced metrics and projections can shape our understanding of an impending matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 9 opposite-handed bats in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jake Cave hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Byron Buxton is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 games (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Jake Cave has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.40 Units / 64% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.19 vs Minnesota Twins 4.72

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