Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 4/30/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 -180, Marlins -1.5 155
• Money Line: Rockies 120, Marlins -140
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 44%
• Miami Marlins - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 39.05%
• Miami Marlins - 60.95%

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

The Miami Marlins are set to take on the Colorado Rockies in a National League matchup on April 30, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, who currently hold a record of 6-24, are having a tough season. Meanwhile, the Rockies have struggled as well, with a record of 7-21.

The Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who has shown promise despite his team's struggles. Sanchez has started one game and made eight relief appearances this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 7.20. However, his 5.30 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. On the other side, the Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner, an average pitcher according to our power rankings. Feltner has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.68.

The Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB this season, while the Rockies offense ranks 19th. The Marlins excel in team batting average, ranking third in the league, but struggle in home runs and stolen bases. The Rockies, on the other hand, have an average ranking in team batting average but rank poorly in home runs and stolen bases.

According to our power rankings, the Marlins bullpen ranks 28th in MLB, while the Rockies bullpen ranks 11th. This suggests that the Rockies may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins are favored to win with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors the Marlins with a projected win probability of 60%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average-scoring game.

It's worth noting that Sixto Sanchez, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Rockies offense, which could work in his favor. However, the Rockies have the advantage in terms of their bullpen and the overall performance of their offense.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Ryan Feltner will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Josh Bell's quickness has dropped off this season. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.93 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Christian Bethancourt hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 games at home (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 away games (+13.13 Units / 33% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has only hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 15 games at home (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Rockies vs Marlins Prediction: Rockies 3.62 - Marlins 4.32

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