Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Colorado Rockies on June 2, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a record of 36-23, are having a great season, while the Rockies, with a record of 21-35, are struggling.

The Dodgers, being the home team, have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They have been dominant at Dodger Stadium, and their offense ranks as the second-best in MLB this season. Their lineup boasts power, as they rank second in team home runs, but they have been less successful on the base paths, ranking only 20th in stolen bases.

Gavin Stone is projected to start for the Dodgers. Stone, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid this season, with a win-loss record of 5-2 and an ERA of 3.16. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered the #160 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he may not be among the elite.

On the other side, the Rockies will send left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber to the mound. Gomber has struggled this season, with a win-loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 2.76. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

The Dodgers' offense has been performing well lately, with catcher Will Smith leading the charge. Smith has been their best hitter over the last seven games, recording five hits, four runs, and three home runs, with a batting average of .278 and an OPS of 1.111.

Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Dodgers are heavily favored in this game, with a moneyline of -260 and an implied win probability of 70%. The Rockies, as massive underdogs, have a moneyline of +220 and an implied win probability of 30%.

With the Dodgers' strong offense and a pitcher like Stone facing the Rockies' struggling offense, this game has the potential to be one-sided. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Rockies will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Austin Gomber has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.5% more often this year (60.4%) than he did last year (54.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Charlie Blackmon's 5.1% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 21st percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Freddie Freeman's speed has declined this season. His 26.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.14 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+12.20 Units / 59% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.06 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.93

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