Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bet – 5/31/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In a National League West matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2024. The Dodgers, with a record of 36-22 this season, are having a great season and currently rank as the second-best team in MLB. On the other hand, the Rockies are having a tough season with a record of 20-35, ranking as one of the worst teams in the league.

The game will feature a pitching duel between the Dodgers' right-handed pitcher, Walker Buehler, and the Rockies' right-handed pitcher, Dakota Hudson. Buehler, with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.26, is considered an above-average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 3.46 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, Hudson has been struggling, with a record of 1-7 and an ERA of 5.54. Our Power Rankings consider him one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

The Dodgers' offense has been dominant this season, ranking as the second-best in MLB. They excel in home runs, ranking second in the league in team home runs. However, their stolen bases rank poorly, at number 20. The Rockies' offense, on the other hand, ranks as an average offense, sitting at the 18th spot in MLB. They have struggled in home runs, ranking 24th, and stolen bases, ranking dead last at number 30.

Heading into this game, the Dodgers are the overwhelming betting favorite with a current moneyline of -295, implying a 72% chance of winning. The Rockies, as the underdog, have a current moneyline of +250, with an implied win probability of 28%.

Based on these numbers, the Dodgers have a strong advantage over the Rockies. Their offense is potent, and Buehler's projected performance suggests that he will have a solid outing. On the other hand, Hudson's struggles and the Rockies' offensive woes may pose challenges for them to generate runs against the Dodgers.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

This year, there has been a decline in Elias Diaz's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.03 ft/sec last year to 24.45 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

With 7 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Walker Buehler should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Colorado's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Andy Pages, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.73 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.77

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