Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels Pick For 7/30/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels are set to host the Colorado Rockies at Angel Stadium on July 30, 2024, in the first game of this Interleague series. Both teams are having rough seasons, with the Angels holding a 46-60 record and the Rockies an even worse 38-69 mark. The Angels, long out of playoff contention, hope to capitalize on the Rockies' struggles.

Griffin Canning will take the mound for Los Angeles. With a 3-10 Win/Loss record and a 5.04 ERA, Canning has had a tough season. He ranks as the 243rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Interestingly, he may have an edge against the Rockies, who rank 3rd in most strikeouts in MLB. This could play into Canning’s ability to notch up a few more K's than usual, even though he has a low 16.3 K% this year.

Opposing him will be Cal Quantrill for Colorado, who brings a more respectable 7-7 record and 4.09 ERA into this game. However, his 4.62 SIERA suggests he has been on the lucky side and might see his performance dip. The Rockies' bullpen has struggled, ranking 24th in the Power Rankings, which should give the Angels some hope late in the game.

Offensively, the two teams are quite different. The Angels rank 24th in offensive Power Rankings but have excelled in stealing bases, ranking 7th in MLB. Over the last week, Nolan Schanuel has been on fire for the Angels, boasting a .438 batting average and a 1.453 OPS over six games. He’s been their best hitter recently, and his hot streak could be pivotal.

In contrast, the Rockies have an average offense, ranking 16th in MLB. Michael Toglia has been their standout performer lately, hitting .381 with a 1.197 OPS in the last week. The Rockies rank 10th in team home runs, providing some power that could challenge Canning.

The betting markets see this as a close matchup, setting the Angels' moneyline at -135, implying a 55% win probability. While the Rockies are given a +115 moneyline, implying a 45% win probability. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Canning is expected to have a slight edge against the Rockies' strikeout-prone lineup. However, if the game is tight, both teams’ struggling bullpens could make the difference late in the game.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Charlie Blackmon's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.4-mph average last year has lowered to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has relied on his change-up 5.5% more often this season (27.3%) than he did last year (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Colorado's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Luis Rengifo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Logan O'Hoppe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.8% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 70 games (+4.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.42 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.73

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