Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 6/26/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will host the Colorado Rockies at Minute Maid Park on June 26, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series. The Astros are coming off a victory, improving their record to 39-40, which has them flirting with the .500 mark. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling mightily, with a dismal 27-52 record.

Starting for Houston will be right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has had an inconsistent season with a 6.36 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest better days ahead. His xFIP of 4.59 indicates that he’s been more unlucky than bad. The Astros' offense, ranked 6th overall in MLB and leading in team batting average, should give him ample run support. They’ve also been hot in the power department, sitting 4th in home runs. Jake Meyers has been a standout recently, boasting a .368 batting average and 1.113 OPS over the last week.

Ryan Feltner, also a right-hander, will take the mound for Colorado. With a 6.02 ERA, his season has been rough, although his 3.85 xFIP argues he's had some bad luck. The Rockies' offense is middle-of-the-road, ranked 16th overall but just 23rd in home runs. Ryan McMahon has been a bright spot lately, hitting .435 with a 1.196 OPS over the last seven games.

The Astros' bullpen ranks 19th, just a notch below the Rockies' 18th, indicating similar relief pitching quality. However, given the disparity in offensive firepower and team performance, Houston holds the edge. The moneyline reflects this, with the Astros as -195 favorites and the Rockies as +165 underdogs.

With both starting pitchers looking for redemption, their respective offenses will likely decide the game. The Astros’ projected 4.61 runs, compared to the Rockies’ 3.39, further underscores Houston's advantage in this matchup. Expect the Astros to capitalize on their superior lineup and home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 4th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Spencer Arrighetti is expected to post an average of 6.3 strikeouts in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jake Meyers is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+13.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 55 games (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.95 vs Houston Astros 4.78

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