Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 6/25/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On June 25, 2024, the Houston Astros host the Colorado Rockies at Minute Maid Park, beginning a new series. The Astros, with a record of 38-40, are having an average season. Meanwhile, the Rockies struggle significantly at 27-51. These teams show potential disparities in both pitching and offense that may influence the game's outcome.

Starting for Houston is right-hander Hunter Brown. Ranked the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Brown has shown good underlying skills this season. His 4.72 ERA might suggest mediocrity, but his 3.51 xFIP, a key indicator from THE BAT X (the leading MLB projection system), reveals he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better moving forward. Brown projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs on average today and strike out 7.3 batters, both strong indicators against a struggling Rockies lineup.

Austin Gomber will get the nod for Colorado. The lefty’s 4.36 ERA is deceiving, with his 4.93 xERA and 5.11 FIP indicating he's been fortunate thus far. THE BAT X projections aren't favorable for Gomber today, expecting him to allow 3.0 earned runs and manage only 3.5 strikeouts. This matchup against the Astros' potent offense, which ranks 6th overall in MLB, doesn’t bode well for the Rockies. Houston leads the league in team batting average and is 4th in home runs, key metrics that could exploit Gomber's vulnerabilities.

Houston’s batting order is spearheaded by Chas McCormick, who has been on fire recently, boasting a .333 average and 1.224 OPS over the last week. In comparison, Ryan McMahon stands out for Colorado, hitting .440 with a 1.241 OPS over the same period.

The Astros bullpen ranks 19th, while the Rockies bullpen is slightly better at 18th, both middle-of-the-pack figures. Today’s betting odds heavily favor the Astros with a moneyline of -250, translating to an implied win probability of 69%. The Rockies, conversely, have a steep climb at +210, implying only a 31% chance of victory.

Houston's robust offense and Brown’s promising underlying stats make them the clear favorites. Expect the Astros to capitalize on Gomber's weaknesses and secure a win to kick off this series.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Gomber to throw 84 pitches in today's game (6th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cave has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Brown in the 91st percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Alex Bregman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 54 games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.4 vs Houston Astros 5.14

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